From the category archives:

Market Trends

Existing Home Supply (June 2009 - June 2010)Consistent with most post-home buyer tax credit housing news, the National Association of Realtors® says Existing Home Sales eased lower last month.

An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction.

The 5 percent drop in sales from May to June was expected, but a closer look at the month’s data reveals some interesting trends.

First, repeat buyers accounted for 44 percent of home resales in June, up from 40 percent in May. That’s a healthy increase for just 4 weeks’ time and the tax credit is a likely catalyst. First-timer buyers bought starter homes owned by former first-timers, who were then free to “move up” to larger, more expensive property.

Housing markets can be trickle-up and, not coincidentally, the jumbo/luxury housing market is now in the midst of rebound.

Second, June’s “distressed sales” accounted for 32 percent of all home resales, up from 31 percent in May.

A figure like this hints at the large role foreclosures continue to play in a Los Angeles home buyer’s home search strategy.  And why not? The National Association of Realtors® suggests that distressed homes are sold at a 15 percent discount.

Lastly, take note that home inventories are rising. June’s 8.9 months of supply is the highest in 10 months. Excess supply leads home prices lower, all things equal.

Overall, the Existing Home Sales data from June is a mixed bag. There’s support for the middle- and upper-price tiers, but a growing overhang of supply. The market looks favorable for buyers given low mortgage rates and strong negotiation leverage.

Want to know more about today's real estate market? Please call Griff Lares of Bob Taylor Properties, Inc. at 626-757-4916. No one works harder for their clients.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

The New York Times ran an important story this week concerning pregnancy and mortgage approvals. Titled “Need a Mortgage? Don’t Get Pregnant“, the article discussed the difficulties that expecting and recently-expanded families are having with their mortgage financing.

NBC’s The Today Show picked up the story as well, as shown in the 3-minute clip above.

The crux of the issue is that maternity/paternity leave often leads to a change in household income and mortgage lenders will no longer assume one or both parents will go back to work full-time.  The loss of income can raise a household’s debt-to-income ratio to unlendable levels.

Now, your loan officer cannot ask you about a pregnancy; such questions would be in violation of Equal Credit Opportunity Act. But he can ask if whether you expect your future employment and income situation to change. This would be a perfect time to broach the topic. And you should. If you’re found to have withheld employment and income information from your lender at a later date, it could result in an immediate loan denial plus a loss of earnest monies paid.

Across both pieces, though, the prevailing message is this: Families concurrently planning to (1) have a baby and (2) buy a home should be up-front and forthcoming with their loan officers. Financing is often still available for families expecting an addition — there’s just some extra paperwork though which to work.

Be prepared for that paperwork and you’re more likely to get your loan.

Want to know more about today's real estate market? Please call Griff Lares of Bob Taylor Properties, Inc. at 626-757-4916. No one works harder for their clients.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

Housing starts July 2008 - June 2010

Single-family Housing Starts eased lower last month, falling by 0.7 percent from May, or 3,000 units nationwide.

A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.

June’s Housing Starts data is somewhat soft and may partially explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, but for buyers and sellers in Los Angeles , the Housing Starts report is not nearly as bad as headlines say.

This is because when the press reports on Housing Starts, it doesn’t single out single-family homes. The press lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading. As a result, news outlets are reporting Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.

The 5 percent figure is actually a combination of 3 separate housing types:

  1. Single-Family Housing Starts
  2. Multi-Unit Housing Starts (2-4 Units)
  3. Apartment Building Housing Starts (5 or more units)

But, single-family homes are what most Americans purchase. This is why the single-family starts data is more relevant than the combined figure commonly reported by the press. 2-4 units and apartment buildings are a different realm of buyer.

That said, though, we can’t even be sure that June’s Single-Family Housing Starts report is accurate. As noted in the Department of Commerce’s press release, the data’s margin of error is 10.7 percent which means the reported results are of “no confidence”.

In other words, there is no statistical evidence to prove the actual change was different from zero.

If Housing Starts did, in fact, drop in June, it will help to reduce the Eagle Rock housing inventory, which will provide support for local home values. For home sellers, this could be good news. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for buyers.

Want to know more about today's real estate market? Please call Griff Lares of Bob Taylor Properties, Inc. at 626-757-4916. No one works harder for their clients.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

Housing starts June 2008 - May 2010Mortgage markets improved for the 5th straight week last week as consumer confidence waned and inflation data tamed. Investors ignored the news that 19 of 23 reporting S&P 500 companies beat their respective earnings estimates and sold off on stocks.

There’s concern about a potential economic slowdown for the months ahead and it may be well-founded.

Despite an improving jobs situation and booming retail sales, households are less optimistic about the future and so is the Federal Reserve. In its post-meeting minutes released last week, the Fed revised its U.S. growth estimates downward for 2010 and 2011.

For rate shoppers in CA , this is excellent news.

Because of the weakness, conforming mortgage rates fell again last week, extending the current rally in rates to 16 weeks. Mortgage rates are lower than at any time in measured history.

This week, data will be housing market-heavy and mortgage rates could rise or fall.

  • Monday : National Association of Home Builders Index
  • Tuesday : Building Permits and Housing Starts
  • Thursday : Existing Home Sales

Strength in any, or all three, of these housing-related reports should push mortgage rates higher on higher hopes for the economy. Weakness, on the other hand, should have the opposite effect. 

Overall, though, mortgage markets are trending better.  Momentum is in effect and refinance activity is soaring. That said, it doesn’t mean that rates won’t rise — they could absolutely. It just takes a change in market sentiment. And that could happen quickly.

Mortgage rates are artificially right now so even the slightest jolt could cause them to spike. It would be similar to what happened in June 2009 when rates rose 1.125% in just 10 days’ time. Therefore, if you’re shopping for a mortgage and like the rate you’ve been quoted, consider locking in as soon as possible.

There’s very little room for rates to fall further but a lot of room for rates to rise. Make sure you’re on the right side of that bet.

Want to know more about today's real estate market? Please call Griff Lares of Bob Taylor Properties, Inc. at 626-757-4916. No one works harder for their clients.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

The Fed’s June Minutes Keep Mortgage Rates In Rally-Mode

by Bob Taylor Properties on July 16, 2010

FOMC June 2010 MinutesAccording to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates made new all-time lows this week and the good news is that rates look poised to fall even more.

Since the Federal Reserve’s release of its June 2010 meeting minutes Wednesday, mortgage rates are dipping even more and one of the main reasons why is because of some choice Fed words.

If you’ve never seen a Fed Minutes release, it reads academic. The document is page after page of stats, facts and figures about the U.S. economy, accompanied by an in-depth recap of the intra-Fed member debates that shape the nation’s monetary policy.

At 7,333 words, the June Fed Minutes is the unabridged version of the more well-known, post-meeting press release.  The corresponding press release was just 360 words.

As it turns out, Wall Street didn’t like what it read in the minutes.  Specifically:

  1. The Fed expects below normal growth through 2012
  2. The Fed’s outlook for employment has dipped
  3. Credit conditions are easing only slowly

Furthermore, the Fed said its action may be needed if the economy were “to worsen appreciably”.

Overall, the economic optimism the Fed displayed earlier this year appears to be waning. The economy is moving forward — just not as quickly as expected.  That should bode well for mortgage rates and home shopping in Los Angeles.

Mortgage rates were down Wednesday afternoon and Thursday and remain historically low. All it would take to reverse rates, however, is a run of positive news on jobs, growth, and consumer spending.  Therefore, if you know you need to lock a mortgage rate in the near-term, it may be a good time to make the call. 

Lock your mortgage rate and move on.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

Foreclosure Activity Slows Again In June 2010

by Bob Taylor Properties on July 15, 2010

Foreclosures per capita, June 2010

313,841 foreclosure filings were made in June, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. The figure represents a 3 percent drop from May and 7 percent drop from June of last year. However, foreclosure filings remain relatively high nationwide.

June marks the 16th straight month the filings topped 300,000. 1 in every 411 U.S. homes received some form of notice last month with foreclosure density varying wildly from state-to-state.

Like everything else in real estate, it seems, foreclosures are a local phenomenon.

The states with the highest foreclosures per capita were:

  • Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 88 homes
  • Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 171 homes
  • Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 189 homes

The states with the lowest foreclosures per capita were:

  • Vermont : 1 foreclosure filing per 26,051 homes
  • West Virgina : 1 foreclosure filing per 8,058 homes
  • South Dakota : 1 foreclosure filing per 6,528 homes

Overall, 40 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average and 10 states fell below. The sheer volume of REO, though, is creating interesting buying opportunities for first-timer buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors in Los Angeles.

Homes bought from banks are usually less expensive than non-foreclosure homes. This is one of the major reasons why distressed sales account for roughly 30 percent of all home resales. Less expensive, though, doesn’t always mean “cheaper”. Foreclosed homes are often sold as-is and may be defective or otherwise uninhabitable.

Making repairs to get these homes into “living condition” can be costly.

Therefore, if you’re buying a foreclosed home, make sure you know what you’re buying before you make your bid. Have a certified professional inspect the home to check for damage, and consider enlisting the help of a real estate agent to assist with negotiations and management of the contract.

The process of buying a foreclosed home is different from buying a typical resale. Make sure you do your homework.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

Loan-level pricing adjustments add to mortgage costsConforming mortgage rates may be posting all-time lows this week, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be eligible for them. You may have already called your loan officer and found this out the hard way.

It’s because of a federally-mandated mortgage-pricing scheme known as “loan-level pricing adjustments”.

In effect since April 2009, loan-level pricing adjustments are changes to a loan’s base rate and/or fee structure based on that loan’s inherent risk to Wall Street. It’s similar to auto insurance pricing adjustment in that a sports car, all things equal, will cost more to insure than a comparably-priced minivan.

More risk, more cost.

In mortgage lending, loan risk can be loosely grouped into 5 categories. Mortgage applications in Los Angeles featuring any of the five traits are subject to price adjustments:

  1. Credit Score (i.e. the borrower’s FICO is below 740)
  2. Property Type (i.e. the subject property is a multi-unit home)
  3. Occupancy (i.e. the subject property is an investment home)
  4. Structure (i.e. there is a subordinate/junior lien on title)
  5. Equity (i.e. mortgage insurance is required by the lender)

Furthermore, loan-level pricing adjustments are cumulative.

A 3-unit investment home will face larger adjustments than an owner-occupied 3-unit home, for example. It’s these adjustments that explain why you may not be eligible for the rates you see advertised online and in the newspapers — your particular loan may be subject to this risk-based pricing that raises your mortgage rate and closing costs.

The government’s loan-level pricing adjustment schedule is public information. See what your lender and how your loan quote is made at the Fannie Mae website. Or, if you find the charts confusing, just call or email your loan officer for help with interpretation.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

Should You Refinance Your ARM, Or Let It Adjust Lower?

by Bob Taylor Properties on July 13, 2010

ARM adjustment schedule 2008-2010

If your adjustable rate mortgage is due to adjust this year, don’t go rushing to replace it just yet. Your soon-to-adjust mortgage rate may actually go lower. It’s related to the math behind the ARM.

Conventional, adjustable-rate mortgages share a common life cycle:

  1. There’s a “starter period” in which the interest rate remains fixed
  2. There’s an initial adjustment period after the starter period called the “first adjustment”
  3. There’s a subsequent annual adjustment until the loan’s term expires — usually at Year 30.

The starter period will vary from 1 to 10 years, but at the point of first adjustment, conventional ARMs become the same. A homeowner’s new, adjusted mortgage rate is determined by the sum of some constant, and a variable. The constant is most often 2.25% and the variable is most often the 12-month LIBOR.

As a formula, the math looks like this:

(Adjusted Mortgage Rates) = (12-Month LIBOR) + (2.250 Percent)

LIBOR is an acronym standing for London Interbank Offered Rate. It’s the rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, lately, LIBOR has been low. As a result, adjusting mortgage rates have been low, too.

Last year, 5-year ARMs were adjusting to 6 percent or higher. Today, they’re adjusting to 3.375%.

Based on the math, it may be wise to just let your ARM adjust this year. Or, depending on how long you plan to stay in your home, consider a refinance to a new ARM.  Starter rates on today’s adjustable rate mortgages are exceptionally low in Los Angeles , as are the rates for fixed rate loans.

Either way, talk to your loan officer about making a plan. With mortgage rates as low as they’ve ever been in history, homeowners have some interesting options. Just don’t wait too long. LIBOR — and mortgage rates in general — are known to change quickly.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 11, 2010

by Bob Taylor Properties on July 12, 2010

Consumer Price Index May 2009-May 2010Mortgage markets improved again last week — if only barely — throughout a holiday-shortened week devoid of “major” data and market conviction.

Up-and-down trading characterized the week which ended with CA mortgage rates slightly lower versus the week prior.

Mortgage rates have fallen in 4 consecutive weeks and are on an extended rally that dates back to mid-April.

This week, however, data returns and rates could reverse. Especially with inflation numbers are in play.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

Inflation is bad for mortgage rates because mortgage rates based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds.  When inflation pressures mount, the demand for mortgage-backed bonds wanes and that pushes bond prices down which, in turn, pushed bond yields (i.e. rates) up.

There’s three pieces of inflation-related news this week.

The first inflation-related story is the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday release of the minutes from its last meeting. Now, when the Fed adjourned June 23, it said “underlying inflation has trended lower“. However, there was more to the conversation that what the FOMC released in its post-meeting statement. 

Markets will be looking for clues.

Then, Thursday, the Producer Price Index is released. The Producer Price Index is a measure of business operating costs. When PPI is increasing, it means that “doing business” is more expensive — an inflationary situation. It’s inflationary because higher business costs are often absorbed by consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services.

A rising PPI is usually bad for mortgage rates.

And lastly, Friday, the Consumer Price Index is released. The CPI measures the average American’s “cost of living”. Like PPI, when the Consumer Price Index is rising, mortgage rates tend to follow.

Other releases of import this week include Retail Sales and two consumer confidence surveys.

Last week, mortgage rates again made new all-time lows. If you haven’t checked with your loan officer about the possibility of a refinance, make that call this week.  Mortgage rates can stay low for a long time, but they can’t stay low forever. Lock your rate while you can.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }

The Flawed Home Price Index Shows Home Values Up 0.8 Percent

by Bob Taylor Properties on July 9, 2010

Monthly change in Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. The public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency has reached a similar conclusion.

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government’s Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It’s a positive signal for a recovering housing market — in Los Angeles and everywhere else.

But just because the Home Price Index says home values are rising, that doesn’t mean they are. The Home Price Index methodology is flawed on multiple fronts.

First, the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay. This two-month lag turns the HPI a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you’re a home buyer looking for direction, HPI won’t give it to you — you’ll have to get that analysis from your real estate agent.

Second, HPI only accounts for home values in which the home’s attached mortgage is backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  As the FHA market share grows, fewer homes get included in the HPI sample set, and HPI values may be skewed high or low.

And, third, HPI doesn’t account for new home sales — only repeat ones.  This, too, eliminates a major segment of the market.

All of that said, though, the Home Price Index remains important to housing.  It’s still the most comprehensive home valuation model in print and it’s been giving strong readings since the start of year.  You can’t ignore that on any level.

It’s July and you may have missed the “rock bottom” Mount Washington home prices from earlier in the year, but homes are still relatively inexpensive. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and home affordability looks excellent. Consider making an offer while the terms are right.

{ Comments on this entry are closed }